Astros red-hot rookie Joey Loperfido is due for major regression

Astros rookie Joey Loperfido has started off his major league career red hot. 

In his first 11 games at the big league level, Loperfido has slashed .324/.378/.441/.819 with one home run and a stolen base. This early start looks promising, but his underlying numbers will soon bring his stats crashing down. 

Through his first 37 plate appearances, he is enjoying incredible luck on batted balls. His batting average on balls in play (BAbip) is an astronomically high .526 — meaning more than half of the balls he's put into play have fallen in for hits. The league average historically is around .300. This number has been boosted by a 40 percent line drive rate, doubling the league average. 

This also leads to another huge issue for Loperfido. He doesn't get that many balls into play, striking out 37.8 percent of the time — the league average is around 23 percent. He tended to strike out a lot in the minors, but it has been worse against major-league pitching. He tends to swing at many pitches outside the strike zone — about 43 percent of the time. 

He makes contact on just 74.7 percent of his swings. Compare that to Kyle Tucker, who connects on balls he swings at 81.4 percent of the time. 

In his favor, he has shown patience at the plate. In Triple-A, his walk rate has been well over 11 percent, which has translated somewhat to the majors where that number sits at a respectable 8.1 percent. 

Loperfido is ranked sixth on the Astros' top prospect list, according to MLB.com, but he's the only offensive prospect out of their top 14 that has played as high as Triple-A. He might get an extended look, even when Chas McCormack returns, or he might start getting some time at first base. 

If he doesn't want his average and playing time to plummet, he will need to put some serious work in on swinging less on pitches outside the zone and making better content. The first thing will probably lead to the other, but it is hard to do at the major league level. It wouldn't be surprising to see him return to Triple-A to work on some things, but the Astros may wait until he cools off from his hot start. 

There may not be much more he can learn at Triple-A. He was destroying pitching at that level, pounding out 13 home runs and hitting .287 in 122 early plate appearances. If the Astros choose that route, it will probably be for him to work on his contact issues and return as soon as possible. 

If he stays with the Astros, regression is inevitable, but it will be interesting to see where his skillset will settle. He has an interesting speed and power skill combo that could be valuable if he can cut down his strikeouts. For now, look for that average to tumble soon.